Highlights:

• Moderate to strong east winds predicted overnight and tomorrow.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive and in Shrewsbury.

Message:

Currently, winds are light across the region and from the northeast. Forecasts are predicting that winds will pick up overnight and shift to the east. Winds are predicted to peak late overnight or early tomorrow morning with sustained wind speeds between 35 and 45 km/hr. For the rest of the day tomorrow, sustained wind speeds are predicted to remain above 30 km/hr from the east, before switching back the northeast tomorrow evening or overnight into Thursday. While winds are predicted to be generally from the east, there could be periods where winds shift more southeast. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves between 1 and 1.5 m in height.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. These east winds will be pushing waves more directly onshore and could cause greater impacts than would be expected from the more typical southwest winds with the same wind speed. More easterly facing locations such as Rose Beach Line and the area around Wheatley could see greater impacts as well.

There is also some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. While forecasts are calling for east winds, if those winds switch to the southeast, the predicted peak wind speeds would cause flooding along Erie Shore Drive. There is also some risk of flooding in the Shrewsbury area. The lower end of the forecasted wind speeds would not be expected to produce significant flooding at this time of the year due to lower lake levels. However, winds with speeds in the upper end of the forecasted range could produce some flooding in the area. Residents and workers in the area should still be prepared for some risk of flooding.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 17, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)