Highlights:

• Moderate to strong south or southwest winds predicted Saturday morning into the overnight period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive

Message:

Forecasts are predicting that Saturday morning winds will be from the southeast. Winds will continue to shift throughout the day becoming southwesterly in the afternoon and westerly overnight. Forecasts are predicting sustained wind speeds will rise above 30 km/hr sometime Saturday morning or early afternoon. However, there is some uncertainty amongst the forecasts about how high the wind speeds may get and how long that may last. Some forecasts predict that sustained wind speeds above 30 km/hr could last all the way into Sunday morning. Several forecasts predict that sustained wind speeds could peak around 45 km/hr, with gusts around 65 km/hr, at various times from early Saturday afternoon through into the overnight period. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves above 1 m in height, possibly reaching as high as 2 m in height. Forecasts are also calling for 10 to 15 mm of rain during this period.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Forecasts suggest winds will be strong enough and from a direction that could produce flooding from Saturday morning all the way into the overnight period. The lower end of the forecasted wind speeds would not be expected to produce significant flooding at this time of the year due to lower lake levels. However, winds with speeds in the upper end of the forecasted range could produce more significant flooding in the area. Residents and workers in the area should still be prepared for some risk of flooding.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 14, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)