Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie
• Possibility of southwest to west winds between 25 and 35 km/hr overnight and during the day Thursday.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding in Lake Erie communities such as Erie Shore Drive.
• Risk of thunderstorms late in the day tomorrow.

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Winds across the region are generally light from the southwest. Forecasts predict that late this evening or overnight winds will pick up in speed. Overnight and during the day tomorrow (Thursday), forecasts suggest that the Lake Erie shoreline could see sustained wind speeds between 25 and 35 km/hr from a southwest to west direction. Then tomorrow evening, forecasts are calling for winds to drop and switch to the west and then to the north. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for waves of around 1 or 1.5 m in height overnight and tomorrow. Forecast also suggest there is a risk of thundershowers late in the day tomorrow.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Given the predicted southwesterly wind direction with possible speeds over 25 km/hr, flooding is possible along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie would also be at some risk. Residents and workers in shoreline areas should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared.

Currently, forecasts are predicting that winds will have dropped in speed tomorrow evening before they switch to the north such that significant impacts to the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA are not expected.

Heavy rains associated with thunderstorm activity could also cause flooding in low lying shoreline areas on either Lake St. Clair or Lake Erie. Heavy enough rains could cause flooding anywhere in the watershed, but our shoreline communities are particularly vulnerable at this time. Due to the high lake levels, the groundwater table is high and storm water sewer systems and local watercourses are full with lake water. As a result, rainwater is not draining properly from these areas. Any water from upstream making its way downstream on these watercourses into these shoreline areas could cause additional flooding.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.  Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until August 28, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])