• Rainfall Warning in effect for the entire region and a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie.
• Combination of heavy rains and strong winds could worsen flooding in shoreline areas.
• Thunderstorms passing through the region have already dropped between 5 and 70 mm of rain.
• Possibility of an additional 10 to 25 mm of rain this afternoon through tomorrow morning, with the potential for more due to thundershowers.
• Ponding and localized flooding expected in areas of poor drainage
• Local watercourses will rise and some could reach bank full conditions or spill their banks
• Moderate to strong southwest winds this evening switching to northwest Saturday morning.
• This evening through tomorrow morning, there is a risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• This evening through tomorrow morning, there is a risk of flooding in Lake Erie communities such as Erie Shore Drive.
• Tomorrow morning into Sunday morning, there is a risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding on Lake St. Clair, including Lighthouse Cove.
There is currently a Rainfall Warning in effect from Environment Canada. Thunderstorms passing though the region yesterday and today have dropped variable amounts of rain across the region, ranging from 5 mm to 70 mm, with the higher rainfall amounts generally in the west. Weather forecasts are calling for additional rain and thundershowers this afternoon through tomorrow morning, which could drop an additional 10 to 20 mm of rain. Higher rainfall amounts could be seen in areas hit by thunderstorms.
The region has seen very little rain over the last few weeks and can likely absorb the lower rainfall amounts. However, areas that receive the higher rainfall amounts should expect ponding and localized flooding in areas with poor drainage. Higher rainfall amounts could also cause local ditches, creeks and streams to rise and some could reach bank full conditions or spill their banks.
At this time the LTVCA does not expect to be operating the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel, however, the situation is being monitored should conditions change.
There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Winds are currently light to gentle across the region and generally from the south. Forecasts predict that winds will rise this evening and sustained wind speeds could range between 25 and 40 km/hr from this evening into Sunday morning. Winds are expected be from the southwest from this evening into Saturday morning when they will switch to the northwest. Of course, there could be higher wind speeds seen as thunderstorms pass through the region. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie suggests waves could reach 1.5 m in height by Saturday morning and around 0.5 m on Lake St. Clair Saturday.
Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Given the predicted southwesterly wind direction with speeds between 25 and 40 km/hr, flooding should be expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent this evening through tomorrow morning. Other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie would also be at risk.
Some forecasts suggest that when winds switch to the northwest tomorrow morning, they will still be strong enough to cause issues on Lake St. Clair. There is risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion to the shoreline. There is also a risk of flooding in Lighthouse Cove. Direction wave action could lead to flooding of properties and roads along the shoreline. In addition, lake setup could cause water levels to rise throughout the community and water could spill out of the canals and flood nearby areas.
Heavy enough rains could cause flooding anywhere in the watershed, but our shoreline communities are particularly vulnerable at this time. The combination of heavy rains and shoreline flooding could worsen flooding in low lying shoreline communities. Due to the high lake levels, the groundwater table is high and storm water sewer systems and local watercourses are full with lake water. As a result, water is not draining properly from these areas. In addition, communities with watercourses running through them, like Shrewsbury, could see worse flooding from the watercourse due to the high lake levels.
People should take extra caution and avoid local watercourses should they rise. The combination of slippery banks and fast moving water can be dangerous. People should also avoid the shoreline of the Great Lakes should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until August 31, 2020.
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