Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie
• Southwesterly winds over 35 km/hr from this evening into tomorrow afternoon.
• Northeast winds around 35 km/hr Sunday, possibly into Monday morning.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs and around Rose Beach Line

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Currently, winds across the region are gentle from the south. Forecasts predict that winds will pick up this evening, reaching sustained wind speeds between 35 and 40 km/hr overnight, with gusts over 60 km/hr. Some forecasts are predicting even stronger winds, especially over the open lake. By morning, winds are predicted to have switched to the southwest but will keep their force until they begin to drop off in the afternoon tomorrow. Tomorrow evening, winds are predicted to switch to the northeast. Winds are predicted to pick up again Sunday morning and could reach sustained wind speeds in the 35 km/hr range, with gusts around 50 km/hr, which could last into Monday morning. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves of around 1 to 1.5 m in the nearshore area and with possibly 2 to 3 m waves on the open lake during the overnight period tonight.

Given the forecasts for wind speeds between 35 km/hr and 40 km/hr, from a south or southwest direction, some flooding could be expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. This risk would last from this evening into tomorrow afternoon. Based on forecasts, conditions could be similar to flooding that occurred on September 30th. There would also be some risk of flooding in other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie.

On Sunday, when winds are out of the northeast, there is some risk of flooding in the Rondeau Bay communities of Shrewsbury and on the bay side of Erieau. Although water levels have dropped, and waves don’t get as large on the bay as they do on the lake, there is still some risk of flooding at the predicted wind speeds.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. While winds are from the south, this would affect the entire shoreline. Although areas just east of Rondeau, such as Rose Beach Line, will be sheltered during the periods of southwest winds, when winds switch to the northeast on Sunday these areas will see more direct wave action.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 13, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])