Highlights:

• Low level flooding in some areas along Erie Shore Drive expected to continue into tomorrow afternoon.

• Gale Warning for western Lake Erie and a Strong Wind Warning for Lake St. Clair
• Down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained southwest winds over 30 km/hr are predicted for the rest of the day.
• Tomorrow morning, sustained southwest winds could exceed 45 km/hr on the Lake Erie shoreline
• Tomorrow morning sustained west winds could exceed 35 km/hr on the Lake St. Clair shoreline
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Great Lakes shorelines, including the high bluffs on Lake Erie
• Flooding possible in Lighthouse Cove.

Message:

There is currently low-level flooding occurring in some areas along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. In addition to water on some properties, water has been observed on the road at one location, although not to significant depths. Forecasts suggest the flooding could continue into tomorrow morning. As winds are predicted to increase overnight and into tomorrow morning, the flooding should be expected to get worse. When winds shift to the west later tomorrow morning, the flooding should cease. All non-essential traffic should avoid the area to ensure that municipal staff and/or emergency services can access the area when required.

The previously issued Strong Wind Warning for Lake Erie has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. There is also a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Lake St. Clair. Down on the Lake Erie shoreline, winds this afternoon have been in the 20 to 30 km/hr range from the southwest. Forecasts predict that winds will pick up during the overnight period and could reach 45 km/hr, with gusts up to 65 km/hr, from the southwest early tomorrow morning. Sustained winds speeds could reach over 60 km/hr on the open lake tomorrow morning as well. Later in the morning, winds are predicted to switch to a more westerly direction and eventually to the northwest in the afternoon. Down on the Lake St. Clair shoreline tomorrow morning, winds could exceed 35 km/hr from the west, with gusts up to 55 km/hr. Sustained winds speeds could reach over 45 km/hr on the open lake tomorrow morning as well. Later in the afternoon, once winds have switched to the northwest, wind speeds are expected to drop. Currently, wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves over 1.5 m during this period, with waves on the open lake peaking at 2 to 3 m tomorrow morning. Waves on Lake St. Clair are predicted to be in the 0.5 to 1m range tomorrow.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. As mentioned previously, there is already low-level flooding occurring along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The flooding could worsen overnight and tomorrow morning as wind speeds are predicted to increase. There would also be a risk of flooding in other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie.

Forecasts are predicting that winds will still be strong enough to impact the Lake St. Clair shoreline in and around the community of Lighthouse Cove tomorrow morning when they switch to the west. However, winds should drop in speed in the afternoon once they switch to the northwest. The predicted wind speed could cause some wave spray related flooding in shoreline areas and flooding from the canals due to lake setup. However, at the predicted wind speeds, the flooding would be limited.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 8, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)