Highlights:

• Gale Warning in effect for western Lake Erie and Strong Wind Warning in effect for Lake St. Clair
• Period of strong winds from this evening through Monday evening with sustained winds between 30 and 55 km/hr.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding in the LTVCA on Lake St. Clair and all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Flooding expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, this evening into tomorrow morning.
• Flooding expected in Lighthouse Cove, Sunday morning to Monday morning, with the possibility further flooding through the evening period.

Message:

There is a Gale Warning in effect for western Lake Erie and a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Lake St. Clair. Currently, winds across the region are light to moderate.

Forecasts are calling for south winds this evening becoming more southwest overnight and west late tomorrow morning. Down on Lake Erie, sustained wind speeds are predicted to climb above 30 km/hr this evening. Tomorrow morning forecasts predict sustained wind speeds could reach as high as 55 km/hr with gusts over 75 km/hr. A couple forecasts suggest sustained wind speeds could reach as high as 65 km/hr. Wave forecasts suggest that waves on Lake Erie could reach 1 to 2 m in height this evening and reach between 2 and 3 m in height tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow morning, when wind speeds switch to the west, they will remain strong. On the Lake St. Clair shoreline, sustained wind speeds are predicted to be around 40 km/hr late tomorrow morning. Winds are expected to switch to the northwest through the day and are expected to peak in the evening or overnight tomorrow. Forecasts predict peak sustained wind speeds could be in the 45 to 55 km/hr range with gusts of around 70 km/hr. Winds are predicted to drop off Monday morning, but some longer range forecasts suggest winds could stay moderate to strong throughout the day and evening Monday as well, with the possibility of sustained wind speeds between 30 and 40 km/hr from the west or northwest. Wave forecasts suggest that wave heights on Lake St. Clair could reach between 1 m and 1.5 m late tomorrow.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Given the predicted southerly or southwesterly wind direction with sustained wind speeds between 30 and 55 km/hr, flooding is expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, which could occur from this evening through tomorrow morning. Should the upper end of the predicted wind speeds appear, flooding could be severe. Other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie would also be at risk.

When winds switch to the west or northwest tomorrow morning, the risk switches to Lake St. Clair. Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction. Given the predicted sustained wind speeds of 40 to 55 km/hr, flooding is expected in the community of Lighthouse Cove. Flooding should be expected in both shoreline and interior areas of the community. Shoreline flooding is expected from direct wave action against the shoreline causing wave spray, and interior flooding is expected from lake setup effects raising water levels in the canals which will spill out into adjacent low lying areas.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.  Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until November 3, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])