Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair
• Possibility of winds between 30 and 40 km/hr, overnight tonight and throughout the day, evening and overnight Friday.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Some flooding expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, lasting possibly into Friday evening.
• Some risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding along the Lake St. Clair shoreline, including Lighthouse Cove, from Friday afternoon into the overnight period.

Message:

There are Strong Wind Warnings in effect for western Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair. Currently, winds across the region are gentle to moderate and from a generally easterly direction. Forecasts predict winds will switch to the south overnight and to the southwest Friday afternoon. Winds are also predicted to rise overnight, and sustained wind speeds down on the Lake Erie shoreline could exceed 30 km/hr by Friday morning. During the day Friday, sustained wind speeds could reach 35 km/hr. A weather system is predicted to move into the region Friday afternoon or evening and sustained wind speeds could reach around 40 km/hr with gusts of around 60 km/hr. As the weather system moves out, winds will switch to a northwest direction. Although winds are predicted to drop off after the weather system passes, sustained wind speeds above 30 km/hr could still persist on the Lake St. Clair shoreline into the overnight period.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Given the predicted southerly or southwesterly wind direction, with possible sustained wind speeds between 30 and 40 km/hr, some flooding is expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, which could occur from overnight tonight into Friday evening. Other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie would also be at some risk.

When winds switch to the northwest Friday afternoon or evening, the risk switches to Lake St. Clair. There is some uncertainty in how strong the winds may still be once they switch to the northwest or how long they may stay strong. Due to high lake levels, the upper end of the predicted wind speeds present some risk of erosion, damage to shoreline protection works, and flooding along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction. There is also some risk of flooding in the community of Lighthouse Cove, either from wave action in shoreline areas or from the canals due to lake setup effects.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.  Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 24, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)