Highlights:

• Special Weather Statement in effect, calling for 15 to 25 mm of rain tonight through Wednesday.
• Smaller watercourses are expected to rise, and any of their remaining ice is expected to break up.
• Areas of ponding, standing water, and localized flooding could be seen around the watershed.
• Ice on the Thames River should be considered unsafe at this time.
• If higher rainfall amounts appear, full breakup of the ice on the Thames River could occur later this week or early next week.

Message:

There is a Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment Canada, noting that the region could see 15 to 25 mm of rain tonight through Wednesday. With the possibility of thunderstorms, some forecasts are suggesting that even higher rainfall amounts could be seen. The rainfall has already started in the region, but most areas have only seen a few millimetres at most. Warm temperatures will also be arriving with the rain. Daytime highs of 7 to 10 C are expected for today, and 12-14 C for tomorrow. Temperatures are not expected to drop back beneath 0 C until Thursday. While most of the snow has already melted out of the western end of the lower Thames River watershed, the warm temperature and rains should be expected to melt most of the remaining snow in the eastern end of the lower Thames River watershed. The melting snow will add to any runoff from the rain.

The rain and snowmelt should be expected to create areas of ponding, standing water and localized flooding. Smaller watercourses around the region will rise and, depending on how much rain falls, could spill their banks into adjacent low-lying areas. Some of these watercourses are still filled or blocked with snow and ice, which could cause localized flooding. The LTVCA is prepared to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel if necessary. Any ice remaining on the region’s watercourses should be considered unsafe and should be avoided.

The Thames River is also expected to rise in response to the rain and snowmelt. This will cause the ice on the river to weaken even more. Depending how much rain falls, and how much the river rises, the ice on the Thames could break up and begin moving later this week. The ice on the Thames River should be considered unsafe at this time.

People should take extra caution and avoid the river, ditches, and streams. Any remaining ice on these watercourses should be considered unsafe. The combination of slippery banks, unstable ice conditions, and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary.

This message will be in effect until March 7th.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])