Highlights:

• Forecasts for tomorrow calling for 5 to 15 mm of rain throughout the day.
• Areas of ponding, standing water, and localized flooding could be seen around the watershed.
• Smaller watercourses would rise, ice could break up, and some could spill their banks.
• Full breakup of the ice on the Thames River not expected at this time.

Message:

A weather system is expected to move into the region tomorrow bringing a significant amount of rain for this time of the year. While temperatures are expected to remain around the freezing point, with a daytime high of only 2 or 3°C, most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain. Areas in the west in the Lower Thames watershed are forecast to receive 10 to 15 mm of rain, while areas in the east are forecast to see 5 to 10 mm. Temperatures are then expected to fall well below the freezing point overnight, and some of the precipitation could then become snow. While there doesn’t appear to be a significant amount of snow on the ground, the region’s watercourses are frozen over and many filled with snow. The rain could melt much of the snow causing additional water to run off the landscape before it freezes overnight. There is a quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecasts, and the effects of the runoff that will occur, due to the cold temperatures and frozen conditions.

The rain and snowmelt, combined with frozen ground conditions and frozen watercourses, should be expected to create areas of ponding, standing water and localized flooding. Smaller watercourses around the region could rise. Some could also spill their banks into adjacent low lying areas. As ice on the smaller watercourses breaks up, blockages could occur causing localized flooding. As temperatures drop overnight, this could cause dangerous icy conditions. Although the LTVCA does not expect to have to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel at this time, it is prepared to do so if necessary.

The Thames River will also respond to this rainfall. As the river rises, the ice sheet will lift and detach from the river banks. There are also still areas of thin ice, and even open water areas, on the river. The ice sheet could break up in these areas and begin moving. However, full breakup of the river ice is not expected at this time. Flooding from the river is not expected at this time. However, ice conditions on the river will be unstable and possibly dangerous.

People should take extra caution and avoid the river, ditches, and streams. The combination of slippery banks, unstable ice conditions, and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Icy conditions will also be created when temperatures drop overnight. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary.

This message will be in effect until February 2nd.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])