Highlights:

• A Special Weather Statement is in effect due to a winter storm arriving this afternoon, with significant precipitation falling mostly as rain in Essex County and Chatham-Kent and mostly snow towards London.
• Ponding and localized flooding is possible where the precipitation falls mostly as rain
• In areas that see mostly rain, local watercourses would rise and some could spill their banks.

Message:

There is currently a Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada due to a winter storm arriving this afternoon. For Essex County and Chatham-Kent, the precipitation from this storm is predicted to fall mostly as rain and the Special Weather Statement suggests the possibility of 20 to 30 mm of rain in total. Moving northeast towards London, the precipitation shifts more towards snow and the Winter Storm Warning issued for the London area does not call for rain. The storm is expected to arrive in the region this afternoon, with most of the precipitation falling during the evening, then tapering off overnight. Very strong winds from the east, shifting to the north, and later to the northwest are associated with this storm.

Given temperatures near the freezing point and the mix of precipitation types in the forecast, it is very difficult to predict whether this storm could lead to flooding in the areas that do see rain. The amount of rain in the forecast is significant for this time of the year. The ground is also still wet from storms that recently passed through the region and has little ability to absorb more. In areas that see the predicted precipitation fall mostly as rain, there could be drainage issues, ponding and localized flooding in low lying areas. This would also cause water levels to rise on our smaller local watercourses. Some of our smaller local watercourses could spill their banks into adjacent natural floodplain areas.

If the higher rainfall amounts appear, it is possible that McGregor Creek in Chatham could rise enough that the LTVCA would have to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel and is prepared to do so if necessary.

Given that precipitation in the Upper Thames watershed is predicted to fall as snow rather than rain, water levels on the Thames River are not expected to respond much to this event.

People should take caution and avoid the river, ditches, and streams. The combination of slippery banks and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets and livestock should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary.

This message will be in effect until March 5th, 2023.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])