Highlights:

• Special Weather Statement in effect due to the possibility of up to 15 to 25 mm of rain overnight and Thursday
• Ponding and localized flooding is possible
• Local watercourses will rise and some could spill their banks.

Message:

There is currently a Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada due to the possibility of significant rainfall amounts. Rain is predicted to begin overnight tonight and taper off tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Total rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 mm are predicted for this event. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing this entire period. While most of the snow has melted out of the western portion of the watershed, there is still snow in the east and in the Upper Thames watershed. Melting snow will add more water to the rain in the forecast. While there is still ice on the Thames River, and in local watercourses, it has been significantly weakened by warm temperatures and will be further weakened by the warm temperatures and rain in the forecast.

The amount of rainfall in the forecast is significant for this time of the year. The heavy rains could lead to ponding and localized flooding in low lying areas. The rain and melting snow will cause water levels to rise on our smaller local watercourses. Accumulated ice and snow in the watercourses could block drainage leading to even higher water levels. Some of our smaller local watercourses could spill their banks into adjacent natural floodplain areas.

If the higher rainfall amounts appear, it is possible that McGregor Creek in Chatham could rise enough that the LTVCA would have to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel and is prepared to do so if necessary.

Given that the rain hasn’t even fallen yet, it is too early to predict with any certainty what may happen on the Thames River. Generally speaking, the Thames River will rise due to the rain and melting snow. Over the weekend, upstream water from the Upper Thames will pass through the Lower Thames and water levels may rise up into the low-lying flood flats adjacent to the river. Conditions will be monitored and further messages will be issued should Thames River water levels rise any significant amount.

People should take caution and avoid the river, ditches, and streams. The combination of slippery banks and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous. Standing water can also present its own unseen hazards. Children, pets and livestock should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary.

This message will be in effect until February 15th, 2023.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])