Highlights:

• A Special Weather Statement and a Gale Warning are in effect from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
• Strong south through west winds with strong gusts forecast from overnight tonight into Thursday morning.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement due to strong winds in the forecast Wednesday into Wednesday night with gusts of 70 to 80 km/hr expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening in the wake of a strong cold front. Their Marine Forecast has issued a Gale Warning due to wind forecasts suggesting sustained wind speeds up to 65 km/hr could be seen on the open waters of Lake Erie from late Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.

Winds across the region are currently moderate and from the southeast or south. Weather forecasts for Lake Erie shoreline areas are calling for winds to rise, beginning this evening, with the possibility that southerly sustained wind speeds over 50 km/hr could be seen during the overnight. Wednesday morning, winds are predicted to switch more to the southwest or west. Winds are predicted to remain strong on Wednesday with various forecasts suggesting sustained wind speeds ranging from 40 to 55 km/hr throughout the day. As noted in the weather advisories, even stronger winds could be seen on the open lake and very strong gusts are also predicted for Wednesday. Winds are then predicted to drop off late overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m to 2 m in nearshore areas with the possibility of 3 to 4 m waves on the open lake. Temperatures are also predicted to drop under the freezing point overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent beginning overnight and lasting possibly into Thursday morning. This risk of flooding depends largely on the actual wind direction that occurs. While there is the possibility of some flooding overnight tonight while winds are more southerly, the greater risk is for Wednesday if winds stay more southwest rather than shifting to the west. Southwesterly winds have in the past affected Erie Shore Drive, while westerly winds are largely offshore and tend to not cause flooding. The degree of flooding would depend on the wind speed, direction and duration. With temperatures near the freezing mark overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, there is also the potential for icy conditions should wave spray or any flooding occur. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels and wave conditions, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Freezing temperatures can also create dangerous icy conditions should wave spray or flooding occur. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the afternoon of December 1st.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])