Highlights:

• A Strong Wind Warning is in effect from Environment Canada’s Marine Forecast.
• Periods of strong southwest winds with gusts forecasted from late this afternoon through Monday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period, largely depending on wind direction.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is currently a Strong Wind Warning in effect from the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Marine Forecast due to strong southwest winds predicted over western Lake Erie. Winds across the region are currently gentle to moderate and generally from the west. Weather forecasts for Lake Erie shoreline areas are calling for sustained wind speeds to rise above 35 km/hr late this afternoon. Although long range wind forecasts can be uncertain, current predictions are calling for winds to remain between 35 and 50 km/hr through Monday with a higher chance of stronger winds on Saturday and the possibility of a break in the winds late on Sunday. The wind direction during most of this period is predicted to be west-southwest with periods of west or southwest winds. Some forecasts describe the winds simply as west or southwest. Again, long range wind forecasts can be uncertain, but current predictions suggest a greater chance of more southerly winds on Saturday and Monday. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m to 2 m during this period. Temperatures are also predicted to be near the freezing point for much of this period.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent beginning this evening and lasting through Monday. This risk of flooding depends largely on the actual wind direction that occurs. If winds remain west-southwest, this direction will be largely offshore and flooding would be limited, if any. However, if winds switch more southwest for an extended period of time, especially if they align with a period of higher wind speeds, flooding would be expected. The degree of flooding would depend on the wind speed, direction and duration. With temperatures near the freezing mark, there is also the potential for icy conditions should wave spray or any flooding occur. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Freezing temperatures can also create dangerous icy conditions should wave spray or flooding occur. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the afternoon of November 22nd.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])