Highlights:

• Strong southwest winds in the forecast Thursday morning through Friday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Some risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is currently a Strong Wind Warning in effect from Environment Canada’s Marine Forecast due to strong winds in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Winds across the region are currently light and generally from the west. Overnight winds are predicted to switch more to the southwest and wind speeds are predicted to rise. Forecasts suggest that down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds could reach 35 km/h sometime in the morning. Sustained wind speeds are then predicted to remain moderate to strong through Friday. Some forecasts suggest sustained wind speeds could reach up to 45 km/h at times. Wind gusts are predicted to be in the 50 km/h range with some forecasts suggesting gusts up to 70 km/h could be seen at times. Winds are then predicted to drop off Friday overnight into Saturday morning. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie suggest wave heights of 1 to 1.5 m in shoreline areas with up to 2 m waves on the open lake.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from late overnight through Friday. Although recent flooding along the road has been isolated during recent events, lake levels have now risen back up above where they were at this time last year. The current condition of the shoreline, including the condition of shoreline protection works, can also have an impact on potential flooding. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels and wave conditions, there is also some risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the morning of November 4th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])