Highlights:

• Strong southwest and southerly winds forecast for this afternoon into the overnight period
• Risk of minor flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of freezing wave spray
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Winds across the region are currently moderate and generally from the southwest. Weather forecasts are calling for winds to rise throughout the day and switch more southerly. Along the Lake Erie shoreline winds are predicted to peak this evening with sustained wind speeds somewhere in the 45 to 55 km/hr range, and the possibility of gusts approaching 80 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to drop off overnight and switch back to the southwest or west by the morning. The ice on Lake Erie has mostly melted away and the lake is now open throughout the LTVCA jurisdiction. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie suggest waves of 1 to 1.5 m in nearshore areas and up to 2 m on the open lake. Temperatures are currently below the freezing point but may temporarily climb above freezing during the evening and overnight period before dropping back down tomorrow morning.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is some risk of minor flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from late this afternoon through the overnight. While the lower lake levels have reduced the risk of flooding, lake levels have generally been rising since the beginning of the month. These higher wind speeds in the forecast have the potential to create waves that could cause minor flooding to properties in the area. Flooding would likely be limited to the rear yards of homes with some accumulation in the front yards. It is unlikely that water would accumulate enough to make it onto the roadway. With temperatures below freezing, there is a risk of freezing wave spray causing slippery conditions. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery, especially if wave spray and low temperatures cause icy conditions. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the afternoon of January 28th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])