Highlights:

• There is currently a Gale Warning and a Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment Canada (ECCC).
• Strong southwest winds in the forecast for Thursday afternoon into the overnight.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

There is currently a Gale Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie from ECCCs Marine Forecast due to the possibility of 65 to 75 km/h sustained winds and up to 3 m waves over the open waters of the lake Thursday evening into the overnight. There is also a Special Weather Statement in effect from ECCC due to forecasts for significant rain and southwesterly winds gusting 70 to 90 km/h Thursday afternoon and evening.

Winds Thursday morning are expected to be moderate from the southeast. Winds are predicted to switch through the south becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. Winds are also predicted to rise throughout the day, becoming strong by noon, and likely peaking in the evening. Down on the Lake Erie shoreline, sustained wind speeds are predicted to peak between 45 and 60 km/h, with wind gusts between 70 and 90 km/h, depending on the forecast. Winds are then predicted to drop off Friday morning and switch more westerly. While there still is some ice along the shoreline, it is not consistent and is not expected to be able to stand up to the waves being forecast. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie in the nearshore areas are uncertain due to the presence of ice but forecasts for the open lake suggest waves could reach 2 to 3 m on Thursday evening. Temperatures are predicted to remain above freezing throughout this event and there is 15 to 25 mm of rain in the forecast.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is a risk of shoreline flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from tomorrow afternoon into the overnight. There is a high degree of uncertainty with regards to any potential flooding due to the presence of ice on the lake and along the shoreline which could dampen the waves, in addition to just the uncertainty in weather forecasts. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the evening of February 10th.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])