Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie
• Forecasts calling for strong southerly winds overnight and Tuesday
• Showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday could drop up to 40 mm of rain
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie from Environment Canada. Currently, winds are gentle to moderate across the region. Forecasts are predicting that winds will pick up this evening and sustained wind speeds from the south could rise above 30 km/hr late overnight tonight or Tuesday morning. Forecasts for Tuesday suggest sustained wind speeds could peak somewhere between 35 and 40 km/hr. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday winds are predicted to switch more northerly. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves around 1 m to 1.5 m in height during this time period. Forecasts are also calling for rain and possible thunderstorms on Tuesday that could drop up to 40 mm of rain in the region.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent on Tuesday. The lower end of the predicted wind speeds are in the range where flooding just begins along Erie Shore Drive. If winds stay down in this range, little flooding would be expected. However, stronger winds predicted by some forecasts are into the range that have previously caused flooding along this road and should the strong winds last for any significant length of time there could be flooding in the area. Heavy rains associated with thunderstorms could also contribute to drainage issues in the area. Residents and workers in the area should be prepared for the possibility of flooding. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Currently, winds are not predicted be strong enough when they switch to the north to cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction. However, some long-range forecasts are predicting stronger winds later on Wednesday and if necessary this advisory will be updated tomorrow as forecasts get revised.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until September 22, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])