Highlights:

• Strong winds this afternoon into the overnight.
• Some risk of flooding in low-lying shoreline areas, including along Erie Shore Drive this afternoon, if winds stay southwest.
• Some risk of flooding Lighthouse Cove this afternoon and this evening.
• Some risk of shoreline damage and erosion.

Message:

Currently, winds are gentle across the region and from the south. Forecasts are predicting that winds will pick up this morning and switch more westerly. Sustained wind speeds could reach 35 km/hr early this afternoon. Most forecasts are predicting winds will switch to the northwest this evening. Based on various forecasts, the peak winds could arrive anytime in the afternoon or evening, with peak sustained wind speeds anywhere between 40 and 55 km/hr, with gusts up to 70 km/hr. Winds are then predicted to drop off overnight. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves of up to 1 m in nearshore areas and 2 m offshore. Wave forecasts for Lake St. Clair are generally calling for waves of 0.5 to 1 m. Around 5 mm of rain are also in the forecast for today.

Most forecasts are calling for winds to have switched far enough out of the west before the wind speeds climb high enough to cause flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline. However, if winds stay southerly enough, wind speeds will be high enough to cause flooding along low-lying, south facing shoreline areas along Lake Erie, such as Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent.

There is also the possibility of flooding along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the community of Lighthouse Cove, depending on how high the wind speeds get. The west or northwest winds would be from a direction that could cause flooding in the community this afternoon and this evening, but whether flooding will occur depends on how high the wind speeds get. Wind speeds at the lower end of the forecast range are unlikely to cause any flooding. However, there could be shoreline flooding in the community should the higher wind speeds occur.

Due to the predicted wind speeds, there is also some risk of shoreline damage and erosion, including along the high bluffs of Lake Erie. However, this risk is lower than typical events with these forecast wind speeds, due to the largely offshore wind direction on Lake Erie.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until March 30, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])