Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie
• Forecasts calling for strong easterly winds late this afternoon until Saturday morning.
• Some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent.
• Some risk of flooding along the Rondeau Bay shoreline
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs, but especially for east facing areas such as Rose Beach Line and around Wheatley.
• Rainfall amounts of 20-35 mm predicted for Friday

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie from Environment Canada. Currently, winds across the region are moderate to strong and generally from the east.

Forecasts are predicting that winds will rise throughout the day and by late this afternoon or early this evening down on the Lake Erie shoreline sustained wind speeds could reach 40 to 45 km/hr. Some forecasts are calling for a slight drop overnight, but then on Friday during the day and into the overnight sustained wind speeds are predicted to be back up in the 40 to 50 km/hr range. Winds are then predicted to drop off early on Saturday. While winds are generally predicted to be from the east for this entire event, there are periods when winds could be from the northeast or southeast. The most likely timing for southeast winds appears to be overnight tonight. Wave forecasts are generally calling for 1 to 2 m waves in nearshore areas with 2 to 3 m on the open lake. There is also 20 to 35 mm of rain currently predicted for Friday.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Those east facing shoreline areas such Rose Beach Line, Rondeau and around Wheatley will be more vulnerable than usual.

There is also some risk of flooding in those communities along the Rondeau Bay shoreline. East and northeast winds could slightly raise water levels in the bay and those winds will be pushing waves towards Shrewsbury and the bay side of Erieau. The extent of such flooding would depend on how high the winds and resulting waves get.

There is also some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Winds are generally predicted to be from the east which would see this area sheltered by Rondeau. However, forecasts suggest the winds could switch to the southeast at times which would expose this stretch of shoreline. Forecasts suggest this is most likely to happen overnight tonight. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction to cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

There is also rain in the forecasts for Friday, with 20 to 35 mm total rainfall predicted. Heavy rains could also cause flooding in low-lying shoreline areas. Due to the high lake levels, the groundwater table is high and storm water sewer systems and local watercourses are full with lake water. As a result, rainwater is not draining properly from these areas. Any water from upstream making its way downstream on local watercourses into these shoreline areas could cause additional flooding.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until noon on October 30, 2021.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)