Highlights:

• Winds are dropping and changing direction which should provide some relief to flooded shoreline areas.
• Total rainfall in the range of 10 to 25 mm expected by the morning.
• Rainfall will cause local watercourses to rise and some could spill their banks.
• Rainfall and rising watercourses could aggravate the problems for areas already experiencing flooding.

Message:

Due to the strong easterly winds experienced Sunday, static water levels are still up around 10 cm in the Rondeau Bay area. Those winds are now beginning to subside. As they do, wave action and water levels should subside as well. A weather system is passing through the region and has already dropped 5 to 10 mm of rain in the western portion of the Lower Thames watershed. Forecasts suggest it could drop an additional 5 to 15 mm before the system passes by. Winds should be out of the northwest most of Monday and Tuesday providing some relief from shoreline flooding.

As the winds and waves subside, those shoreline areas currently experiencing flooding should start to see some relief. However, the rain could aggravate the situation.

The ground is still quite saturated and can absorb little more water. Given the rainfall amount predicted for Sunday evening and overnight, there could be ponding of water in low lying areas and issues with standing water. The rainfall will also cause our local ditches, creeks and streams to rise throughout the day Monday. If the higher rainfall amounts appear, some watercourses could reach bank full conditions or spill their banks. At this time, the LTVCA does not expect to have to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel but will be keeping an eye on it.

With the high lake levels it is very difficult for the water to drain away from those shoreline areas currently experiencing flooding. The rainfall we receive overnight could aggravate the flooding and will add to any issues of standing water. In addition, some local watercourses are already high where they outlet to the lake or bay due to the high lake levels. These watercourse are even more sensitive to any rainfall we receive and could more easily spill their banks and cause flooding. Shrewsbury would be an area most susceptible to this.

People should take extra caution and avoid the river, local watercourses, and the shore areas. Slippery banks and cold water can be dangerous. Watercourses will be flowing fast and on the lake the waves can be strong. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

Contact: Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority office (519-354-7310) or Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca) regarding this message.

This message will be in effect until May 14th, 2019