Highlights:

• Moderate to strong winds in the forecast later this afternoon through tomorrow morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Erie Shore Drive

Message:

Weather forecasts are calling for moderate to strong winds beginning late this afternoon or early this evening and lasting through Tuesday morning. Down on the Lake Erie shoreline, winds are currently out of the northeast at under 20 km/hr. Later today winds are expected to shift more easterly and rise in speed. Most forecasts suggest sustained wind speeds will climb above 30 km/hr late this afternoon or early this evening while still out of the east. During the overnight period winds are predicted to change through the south ending up as southwest winds in the morning, and westerly winds by the afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon, winds are predicted to have dropped back below 30 km/hr. For this event, sustained wind speeds are expected to peak at around 35 km/hr with gusts potentially over 50 km/hr. Wave forecasts are predicting waves of around 1.5 m in height.

There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion, all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Whether any particular area will be impacted, and how much, will depend on how high the wind speeds get and how long they remain from that direction. While winds are out of the east, there is some risk to east facing shoreline communities like Rose Beach Line, around Wheatley, Shrewsbury, and possibly the bay side of Erieau. As they switch more to the south, Erie Shore Drive will become more exposed. As winds switch to the west, they will be largely blowing offshore and the risk to the shoreline drops off.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until February 17, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)