Highlights:

• Gale Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie.
• Strong southerly winds predicted this evening into Monday morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent and a risk of flooding in other low-lying shoreline areas.

Message:

There is a Gale Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie. Currently, winds are light to moderate across the region and generally from the southeast. Forecasts are predicting that winds will pick up this afternoon and switch to the south. Overnight, winds are predicted to switch to the southwest. Down on Lake Erie, sustained wind speeds could reach 35 km/hr by early this evening. Winds are predicted to peak overnight and, depending on the forecast, peak sustained wind speeds are predicted anywhere between 40 and 60 km/hr, with gusts between 65 and 90 km/hr. Strong winds are then predicted to continue into Monday morning, switching to the west and dropping off in the late morning. Temperatures are predicted to be above freezing during this event and there could be small amounts of rain. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves over 1.5 m in height for most of this period with wave heights peaking at over 2 m in nearshore areas and 3 m on the open lake.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Based on the wind speed and direction forecasts, flooding is expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Even the lower end of the forecasted wind speeds would cause some flooding along Erie Shore Drive. If wind speeds reach the upper range of forecasted wind speeds, flooding could be severe in the area. Residents and workers in the area should be prepared. There is also a risk of flooding in other low-lying shoreline areas along Lake Erie.

Currently, winds are predicted to have dropped off enough before switching to the west Monday and there are not expected to be issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will attempt to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect through December 28, 2020.

Message contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)