Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning has been issued for Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair due to strong winds predicted to last through the long weekend.
• Slight risk of shoreline damage, erosion and flooding along the Lake St. Clair shoreline this evening into tomorrow morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline, including Erie Shore Drive and the high bluff areas, this evening and Saturday evening through Sunday.

A Strong Wind Warning has been issued by Environment Canada’s Marine Forecast due to strong winds forecasted to begin this evening and to last all through the long weekend. Currently winds are out of the east or southeast. Winds are forecasted to rise and switch the west as a rain system passes through this evening and overnight. Winds could see a boost as the winds come through with some forecasts suggesting winds between 30 and 35 km/hr during this period. For Saturday winds, are forecasted to stay strong all day, starting out from the west but shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Generally, forecasts are calling for winds between 25 and 30 km/hr for most of the day Saturday. Forecasts then suggest a period of higher wind speeds in the late afternoon or evening with speeds between 30 and 35 km/hr. Wind forecasts for Sunday would generally be considered too far out to be reliable. However, some forecasts are suggesting even stronger winds on Sunday, potentially between 35 and 40 km/hr, with strong winds lasting through Monday as well. Forecasts suggest wave heights on Lake Erie could reach up to 1.5 m in height overnight.

These forecasted high winds have the potential to impact the Great Lakes shorelines in Lower Thames jurisdiction. There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion, including along the high bluff areas. Low lying areas could also experience flooding. If the winds rise too high before switching to the west, there could be impacts to the Lake Erie shoreline, including along Erie Shore Drive, this evening. While winds are from the west, there could be impacts to the Lake St. Clair shoreline in Chatham-Kent and the community of Lighthouse Cove, although few forecasts are predicting winds high enough for that. As winds switch back to the southwest later in the day Saturday, there is once again the potential for impacts to the Lake Erie shoreline, including the Erie Shore Drive area. The wind event that recently caused damage along Erie Shore Drive and triggered a State of Emergency had winds of 35 km/hr. Whether damages will occur will depend on actually how high wind speeds get and the direction they are coming from at the time. Residents should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 15, 2019.

Contact: Jason Wintermute ( [email protected]) regarding this message.