Highlights:

• Strong southwest winds in the forecast for late tomorrow morning through into the overnight period.
• Some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.
• Some risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.

Message:

Winds across the region are currently light to moderate and generally from the south. By tomorrow morning, winds are predicted to be from a more southwesterly direction. Winds are then predicted to rise throughout the morning. For Lake Erie shoreline areas, various forecasts suggest that sustained wind speeds could reach into the 35 to 45 km/h range by late in the morning tomorrow and could possibly stay in that range through Tuesday morning. Wind direction is predicted to remain from the southwest throughout the day tomorrow and possibly into the overnight period. Winds will then switch more westerly. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie suggest wave heights of 1 to 1.5 m in nearshore areas and 2 m on the open lake.

Based on these weather forecasts, there is some risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent from late tomorrow morning into the overnight period when winds are predicted to switch more westerly. Although recent flooding along the road has been isolated during recent events, lake levels have now risen back up above where they were at this time year in 2021 and 2022. Residents should monitor local conditions and be prepared.

Due to high lake levels and wave conditions, there is also a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

Winds are not predicted to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until the morning of May 2nd.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute ([email protected])