• Moderate, or slightly stronger, southwest winds predicted for this afternoon into the overnight.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of low-level flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent
• Risk that floodwaters could freeze causing icy conditions.
Currently, winds are gentle and from the southwest. Forecasts are predicting that winds will rise throughout the day. Most forecasts are predicting that sustained wind speeds could climb above 30 km/hr this afternoon and remain between 30 and 35 km/hr into the overnight period. Winds are then predicted to drop off a bit and remain in the 25 to 30 km/hr range into late Tuesday. Long range forecasts are predicting the possibility of periods of stronger winds Wednesday through into the weekend. Temperatures are predicted to range between +1 and -3 degrees Celsius during this period. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves of 0.5 to 1 m in height in nearshore areas with waves up to 1.5 m on the open lake.
Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.
There is also a risk of some low-level flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The predicted winds speeds are right in the range where flooding begins along the road. If wind speeds remain in the lower range of the forecasts, the flooding would likely be limited to some wet yards. If wind speeds make it to the upper range of the forecasts, enough water could collect to make it onto the roadway. In addition, freezing temperatures predicted during this time period could lead to icy, slippery and hazardous conditions, especially if enough water collects to make it onto the roadway. Residents and workers in the area should be prepared for some risk of flooding and icy conditions.
Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.
People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery, especially in freezing conditions. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until January 13, 2021.
Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (firstname.lastname@example.org)