• Forecasts calling for moderate to strong southerly winds this afternoon into the overnight period.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
Currently, winds across the region are gentle and generally from the southeast. Forecasts are calling for winds to rise throughout the day. Forecasts for the Lake Erie shoreline suggest wind speeds for this afternoon and this evening in the 35 km/hr to 40 km/hr range, with gusts over 50 km/hr. Later in the evening or early overnight, winds are predicted to shift more to the southwest and drop off. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for wave heights of around 1 m, possibly up to 1.5 m. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing during this period. Long range forecasts are suggesting a period of strong to gale force winds from overnight Friday through Saturday, which will likely be discussed in a flood message tomorrow.
Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.
There is also a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. The 35 km/hr to 40 km/hr wind speeds being predicted for this afternoon and this evening are high enough to cause flooding along the road. Recently, winds of these speeds have caused flooding on some properties and put water onto the roadway. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.
Winds are not predicted to be from a direction to cause issues on the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.
People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until December 10, 2021.
Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (firstname.lastname@example.org)