Highlights:

• Moderate to strong southwest winds predicted late this evening into Wednesday morning.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive

Message:

Winds across the region are currently gentle and generally from the west. Later this afternoon or early this evening winds are predicted to switch more to the southwest. Forecasts predict that sustained wind speeds this evening will climb above 30 km/hr and remain at least that strong into Wednesday morning. Some forecasts are predicting sustained wind speeds could peak as high as 45 km/hr, with gusts around 65 km/hr, late this evening or early overnight. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves in the 1 to 1.5 m height range during this period, possibly reaching as high as 2 m in height.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. There is some uncertainty when considering the various forecasts regarding wind direction and speed. Should winds stay more westerly instead of southwesterly, this would reduce the risk of flooding. Also, the lower end of the forecasted wind speeds would not be expected to produce significant flooding at this time of the year due to lower lake levels. However, southwesterly winds with speeds in the upper end of the forecasted range would produce flooding in the area. Residents and workers in the area should still be prepared for some risk of flooding.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until December 10, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)