Highlights:

• Strong winds from the northeast forecasted for tomorrow on Lake Erie, with speeds above 30 km/hr and gusts up to 50 km/hr in the morning.
• Risk of erosion, shoreline damage and flooding, especially in Erieau, Shrewsbury and along Rose Beach Line.
• Other areas could be impacted as well, on both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, especially if forecasts change.

Message:

Currently, weather forecasts are calling for strong northeast winds tomorrow on Lake Erie. Winds are forecasted to begin rising overnight and could exceed 30 km/hr in the morning, with wind gust up to 50 km/hr. Waves could exceed 1 m in height. Winds are forecasted to remain strong from the northeast in the afternoon, with some forecasts predicting strong winds to last into the evening. The forecasts are also calling for northeast winds on Lake St. Clair, but they are not expected to be as strong.

There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion. Low lying areas and communities are also at risk of flooding. The forecasted winds and waves would cause problems in the Rondeau Bay area. Flooding would be expected on the bay side of Erieau and in the community of Shrewsbury. The northeast winds could also impact the Rose Beach Line area. There could also be impacts to other areas of the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs areas, especially if the wind switches more easterly. With the current forecast, significant impacts in Lighthouse Cove would not be expected. However, summer winds can change quickly. Should wind speeds rise above those forecasted or switch to a more northerly directions, Lighthouse Cove could be impacted as well.

There is also a risk of more thundershowers overnight and tomorrow morning. Heavy rains associated with thundershowers could also cause flooding in low lying shoreline areas. Due to the high lake levels, the groundwater table is high and storm water sewer systems and local watercourses are full with lake water. As a result, rainwater is not draining properly from these areas. Any water from upstream making its way downstream on these watercourses into these shoreline areas could cause additional flooding.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline and any waterways with elevated water levels. The waves on the lakes can be strong, and the shoreline and the banks of waterways can be slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shoreline. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until July 8, 2019.

Message Contact: Jason Homewood (jason.homewood@ltvca.ca)