Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie
• Southwesterly winds over 35 km/hr predicted to last from overnight tonight into Wednesday afternoon
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs
• Flooding expected along Erie Shore Drive.

Message:

There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Currently, winds across the region are gentle from the southwest. Forecasts predict that winds will pick up this evening and exceed 35 km/hr during the overnight period. Winds are then predicted to remain between 35 and 40 km/hr, with gusts up to 60 km/hr, throughout the day tomorrow. Some forecasts suggest that there may be a brief lull during the late evening or early overnight tomorrow. However, strong winds are predicted to persist into Wednesday as well. Winds between 35 and 40 km/hr, with gusts up to 60 km/hr are generally predicted for Wednesday morning. However, some forecasts suggest sustained winds could climb even higher Wednesday morning, potentially reaching up into the 55 km/hr to 60 km/hr range. Sometime Wednesday afternoon or early evening, forecasts suggest winds will switch to the northwest and begin to drop. Currently, wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves over 1 m during this period, peaking in the 1.5 to 2m height range.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Given the forecasts for wind speeds over 35 km/hr, from a southwest direction, flooding should be expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Flooding could be severe should the near gale wind speeds predicted for Wednesday morning appear. Flooding could also be worse due to the extended duration of the event. There would also be a risk of flooding in other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie.

Currently, forecasts are mixed with respect to what could happen on Lake St. Clair come Wednesday afternoon. Some forecasts suggest winds will have dropped before switching to northwest, while others suggest they could still be strong enough to cause issues. Should tomorrow’s forecasts suggest an issue on the Lake St. Clair shoreline within the LTVCA’s jurisdiction, an update will be provided tomorrow.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 8, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)