• Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie
• Forecasts calling for strong southerly winds, Thursday afternoon and Friday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs
There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for Western Lake Erie from Environment Canada. Currently, winds across the region are light to moderate and generally from the east.
Forecasts are predicting that winds will rise this evening. Down on Lake Erie, sustained wind speeds could reach around 30 km/hr overnight. Winds will switch through the south, starting out southeast overnight tonight and becoming southwest by Thursday evening. Wind speeds are predicted to continue rising and sustained wind speeds around 40 km/hr could be seen Thursday afternoon through Friday. Forecasts suggest the possibility of periods with even stronger sustained winds approaching 50 km/hr on Friday. Winds are then predicted to drop off Friday evening, although some long-range forecasts suggest winds around 30 km/hr could linger into Saturday. Wave forecasts are currently calling for 1 to 1.5 m waves in nearshore areas during this period.
Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.
There is also a strong risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent over the next few days. Nuisance flooding could be observed by morning depending on how high the winds get. However, the stronger winds of around 40 km/hr, which are predicted to last from Thursday afternoon through Friday, could produce more flooding over an extended period of time. If the 50 km/hr winds appear, significant flooding should be expected in the area. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.
Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction to cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.
People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until noon on November 14, 2021.
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