Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie.
• Forecasts calling for gentle to strong west or southwest winds tomorrow through Saturday.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluff areas.
• Flooding and shoreline damage possible in low lying shoreline areas along Lake Erie such as along Erie Shore Drive
• Forecasts suggest sustained winds on Lake St. Clair not strong enough to cause flooding until maybe Saturday
• Potential for thundershowers

Message:

There is currently a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Wind speeds have dropped from earlier in the day and are now gentle to moderate from the south or west. There is quite a bit of variability in the forecasts over the next few days. Some forecasts suggest winds will stay gentle over the next couple of days while others suggest moderate winds with the potential for periods of strong winds over the next couple of days. Forecasts suggest winds will generally be out of a west or southwest direction over the next few days as well. Long range forecasts for Saturday are suggesting a period of moderate to strong winds from the west or southwest. There is also the potential for thunderstorms over the next few days as well.

While winds are out of a southwest direction, they will be driving waves onto our Lake Erie shoreline throughout Chatham-Kent and Elgin County. There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the shoreline, including along the high bluff areas. There could also be flooding in low lying shoreline areas. Wind speeds around 25 km/hr have previously produced flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Some forecasts suggest we could see such conditions throughout the day on Thursday and later in the day on Friday as well. Most long range forecasts suggest such conditions are likely on Saturday.

Forecasts for Lake St. Clair are not calling for sustained wind speeds strong enough to cause flooding around Lighthouse Cove on Thursday or Friday. However, there is quite a bit of variability in the forecasts. Given the high lake levels, there is still some risk of flooding due to thundershowers and associated weather systems that can cause sudden or unexpected changes in wind conditions. Some long range forecasts suggest that the wind speeds and direction on Saturday could be in the ranges to cause flooding.

Residents and workers in shoreline areas should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared. People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until June 27, 2020

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)