Highlights:

• Forecasts calling for southwest winds between moderate and strong tomorrow during the day
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluff areas.
• Flooding and shoreline damage possible in low lying Lake Erie shoreline communities such as Erie Shore Drive
• Risk of thunderstorms overnight tonight through tomorrow evening

Message:

The region is currently seeing calm to light winds, mostly from the east or northeast. Late overnight or early tomorrow morning, winds are predicted to pick up and switch to the southwest. Winds tomorrow during the day could range between 20 and 35 km/hr, before dropping off again during the evening. Forecasts are predicting waves could reach 1 m in height on Lake Erie. There is also a risk of thunderstorms overnight tonight through tomorrow evening.

While winds are out of the southwest, they will be driving waves onto our Lake Erie shoreline throughout Chatham-Kent and Elgin County. There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the shoreline, including along the high bluff areas. The range of wind speeds in the forecasts suggests that winds could climb above the 25 km/hr threshold that have previously caused flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Other low-lying areas along the Lake Erie shoreline could also be at risk of flooding from higher wind speeds.

In addition to flooding associated with lake setup and waves from strong sustained winds, there is a risk of flooding due to thundershowers and associated weather systems that can cause sudden or unexpected changes in wind and wave conditions and heavy rains. Due to the high lake levels, water is not draining away properly from these shoreline areas, which can lead to greater impacts from thundershowers and prolong flooding.

Residents and workers in shoreline areas should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared. People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until July 23, 2020

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)