• Forecasts calling for strong southwest winds overnight and during the day Thursday.
• Risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, from this evening until late in the day Thursday.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs
Winds are currently gentle across the region and generally from the south. Forecasts are predicting that down on the Lake Erie shoreline sustained wind speeds will rise above 35 km/hr this evening or early during the overnight period and shift more to the southwest. Winds are predicted to peak late overnight or early tomorrow morning with sustained wind speeds in the 40 to 50 km/hr range. The strong winds are predicted to last into Thursday afternoon. Then later in the afternoon or early evening on Thursday, winds are predicted to drop off and switch to the west or northwest. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are calling for waves around 1 to 1.5 m in nearshore areas and 2 m on the open lake. Temperatures are predicted to remain above freezing during this period. The Strong Wind Warning program from Environment Canada has ended for the season, otherwise there likely would be a Strong Wind Warning in effect.
There is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent, from this evening until late in the day Thursday. Recently, when winds have reached the predicted 35 km/hr range, there is flooding of the front yards of some properties along the road and water starts to get onto the roadway in a couple locations. Should the higher wind speeds that are predicted appear, there could be more significant flooding along the road. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared. There could also be impacts to other low-lying shoreline areas that have seen flooding over the last few years.
Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.
Currently, winds are not predicted to be strong enough over Lake St. Clair when they switch to the west or northwest to cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.
People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until December 3, 2021.
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