Highlights:

• Moderate to strong southwest winds in the forecast tomorrow afternoon through to Sunday evening.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Flooding expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

Message:

Weather forecasts are calling for gentle to moderate winds for the rest of today into tomorrow morning. Winds are currently gentle from south. Over the next 24 hrs, the wind direction is predicted to change counter-clockwise ending up southwest by tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon, winds are predicted to rise to around 30 km/hr. From tomorrow afternoon through to Sunday evening, winds are predicted to remain southwest above 25 km/hr. Wind speeds are predicted to peak sometime overnight Saturday into Sunday at somewhere between 35 and 40 km/hr from the southwest, with gusts above 50 km/hr. Waves of at least 1.5 m should be expected on Lake Erie during times of peak winds. After a brief calming on Monday, long range forecasts suggest another period of strong winds late Monday into Tuesday from the southwest to northwest.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Flooding is expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent Saturday afternoon and throughout the day Sunday, given the predicted southwest wind direction and speeds well above the 25 km/hr threshold. The extended period of time that winds are southwest above the threshold speed is likely to aggravate flooding beyond what is typically expected for these wind speeds. Residents and workers in the area should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards.
Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until April 20, 2020.

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)