Highlights:

• Moderate to strong, south or southwest, winds predicted for tomorrow and Thursday.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluffs.
• Flooding likely along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent during this period.

Message:

Currently, winds are gentle across the region and from the east. Late this evening and overnight, winds are predicted to rise and switch to the south. While a few forecasts are predicting that winds could reach 30 km/hr down on the Lake Erie shoreline tomorrow (Wednesday) morning, most forecasts are predicting that threshold will be reached that evening. Late Wednesday winds are predicted to shift more southwesterly and moderate to strong winds, between 30 and 45 km/hr, are then predicted to last through the day Thursday before dropping off in the evening. Temperatures are predicted to remain above freezing during this period and forecasts are predicting between 5 and 15 mm of rain. Wave forecasts for Lake Erie are generally calling for waves of 1 to 1.5 m in height.

Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas.

There is also likely to be flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Although it is possible flooding could begin as early as tomorrow morning, flooding should be expected late tomorrow through the day Thursday. Given the long duration of this wind event and the possibility of winds over 40 km/hr, enough water is likely to collects to cover people’s yards and flow across the roadway. Residents and workers in the area should be prepared.

Currently, winds are not predicted to be from a direction that would cause issues for the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA jurisdiction.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until March 12, 2021.

Message contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)