Highlights:

• Easterly winds between moderate and strong in the forecast tomorrow, potentially lasting through the overnight period.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding all along the Lake Erie and Rondeau Bay shorelines, including the high bluffs.
• Flooding and shoreline damage possible in many shoreline communities including: Erie Shore Drive, Rose Beach Line, Wheatley, Shrewsbury and the bay side of Erieau.

Message:

Weather forecasts are now calling for wind speeds between moderate and strong from the east tomorrow (Thursday) during the day and potentially lasting through the overnight period Thursday into Friday. Winds are currently light and generally out of the west. Later today, winds should begin to shift around to the south, ending up as easterly overnight. Overnight, wind speeds are predicted to rise and could exceed 30 km/hr by the morning. Throughout the day Thursday, wind speeds are predicted to remain between 30 and 40 km/hr, with potential gusts over 50 km/hr. Some forecasts suggest that this wind event could extend through to Friday morning. While winds are generally being predicted to be out of the east, there is some uncertainty how long winds may remain out of the southeast Thursday morning before changing more directly east and then northeast later in the day. Waves up to1.5 m in height could be expected on Lake Erie during times of peak winds. After a brief calming later on Friday, long range forecasts suggest another northeast through northwest wind event later in the day on Saturday and Sunday

Since winds are predicted to be out of the east, winds will be driving waves onto our Lake Erie shoreline throughout Chatham-Kent and Elgin County. There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the shoreline, including along the high bluff areas. There could also be flooding in low lying shoreline areas. At the beginning of this event when winds are from the southeast, there is a risk of flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. As winds shift to the northeast, Erie Shore Drive would become sheltered by Rondeau Bay but other areas would continue to be at risk. The Rose Beach Line area and areas around Wheatley are at greater risk from these easterly winds. In addition, the Rondeau Bay area would be at greater risk with these easterly winds. Increased flooding is likely in Shrewsbury and on the bay side of Erieau. The extended period of time that winds are out of the east could lead to flooding beyond what is typically expected for these wind speeds.

Residents and workers in shoreline areas should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared. People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until April 25, 2020

Message Contact: Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)