• Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie.
• Moderate to strong winds predicted into the weekend.
• Some risk of flooding on Erie Shore Drive overnight and tomorrow.
• Some risk of flooding for Rondeau Bay communities, such as Shrewsbury and the bay side of Erieau, late Wednesday into the weekend.
• Some risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the high bluff areas and around Rose Beach Line.
• Some risk of shoreline damage, erosion and/or flooding on Lake St. Clair, including Lighthouse Cove, late Wednesday into the weekend.
There is a Strong Wind Warning in effect for western Lake Erie. Winds are currently gentle and from the south across the region. Forecasts predict that winds will pick up this evening and could exceed 25 km/hr overnight. Forecasts predict that moderate to strong winds in the range of 20 to 35 km/hr will then last straight through into the weekend. This evening through tomorrow evening winds are predicted to be from a southwest direction. Winds are then predicted to switch to a north or northeast direction late tomorrow or overnight into Thursday and to remain from that general direction into the weekend. Waves are generally predicted to be in the 1 m range on Lake Erie while winds are from the southwest and 0.5 m on Lake St Clair for the rest of the week, although there could be periods of higher winds and waves.
While winds are from the southwest, overnight through tomorrow evening, they will be driving waves onto the Lake Erie shoreline. Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County, including along the high bluff areas. Given the predicted southwesterly wind direction, with possible sustained wind speeds above 25 km/hr, flooding is possible along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Other south-facing shoreline communities along Lake Erie would also be at some risk.
Overnight tomorrow through into the weekend, the risk switches to other areas along with the change in wind direction. Generally, the predicted wind speeds are in the range where they just start to cause problems for north and east facing communities along Lake St. Clair, in Rondeau Bay and along Lake Erie. There is some uncertainty when exactly during this period winds may be from north or from the northeast. While winds are from the north, the higher end of predicted winds speeds could cause some low level flooding in the Lighthouse Cove area on Lake St. Clair. Once winds switch to the northeast, the Lake St. Clair shoreline in the LTVCA would largely be sheltered from winds and the risk of flooding drops. North and east facing Rondeau Bay communities such as Shrewsbury and the bay side of Erieau could also see some low level flooding from winds at the higher end of predicted wind speeds during this period. For Lake Erie, while winds are from the north or northeast they will be largely be offshore or alongshore and would not be expected to cause issues along the majority of the Lake Erie shoreline. The exception would be the Rose Beach Line area in Chatham-Kent which gets impacted more strongly by northeast winds.
People should also avoid the shoreline of the Great Lakes should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until September 21, 2020.
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