• Special Weather Statement has been issued by Environment Canada.
• Strong winds in the forecast from Sunday afternoon through Monday.
• Risk of shoreline damage and erosion all along the shorelines of Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair and Rondeau Bay,
• High risk of significant flooding along Erie Shore Drive during this period.
• Risk of flooding and damages on Sunday afternoon along east facing shorelines, such as Rose Beach Line, around Wheatley, Shrewsbury and some areas of Erieau
• Risk of flooding and damages on Monday in the Lighthouse Cove area and along the Lake St. Clair shoreline in Chatham-Kent.
• Heavy rains also forecast, possibly as much as 40 mm, from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
There is currently a Special Weather Statement in effect from Environment Canada. Easterly winds predicted for Sunday morning could reach above 35 km/hr by around noon on Sunday and become more southeasterly. During the afternoon on Sunday, sustained wind speeds could reach into the 40 to 45 km/hr range with gusts over 60 km/hr. Sunday evening winds are predicted to become more southerly and overnight sustained wind speeds could rise above 50 km/hr with possible gusts in the 70 to 90 km/hr range. Overnight winds are predicted to switch more southwest and then west sometime on Monday. For Monday afternoon, peak sustained wind speeds could reach 50 to 60 km/hr with gusts of 70 to 90 km/hr. The Special Weather Statement suggests wind gusts of up to 100 km/hr could been seen at times along the Lake Erie shoreline on Monday afternoon. Winds are then predicted to drop off Monday overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds are predicted to remain above freezing during this period. The Special Weather Statement is also calling for heavy rains with local rainfall totals of 20 to 40 mm of rain, likely from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Lake Erie wave forecasts suggest wave heights of 1 to 1.5 m for lake Sunday and 1.5 to 2 m waves on Monday. Lake St. Clair wave forecasts are calling for waves of 1 m or slightly higher on Monday.
Due to high lake levels, there is a risk that wave action during this event could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Great Lakes shorelines. This includes the high bluff areas long the Lake Erie Shoreline for most of this event, and at times the Rondeau Bay shoreline and the shoreline in eastern Lake St. Clair.
While winds are out of the east, mostly Sunday afternoon, there is some risk of flooding and shoreline damage to the community of Shrewsbury on Rondeau Bay and portions of the community of Erieau. While winds are out of the east and southeast, mostly Sunday afternoon into the evening, east facing shoreline areas along Lake Erie will see a greater than usual risk of shoreline damage and erosion and the possibility of some flooding in low-lying shoreline areas, for example around Rose Beach Line and around Wheatley.
There is a strong risk of significant flooding along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent for much of this event. Erie Shore Drive is impacted by wind events from the southeast through southwest and strong winds from this direction are possible from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Predicted wind speeds during this period are easily in the range to cause flooding in the area. Based on current forecasts, the worst flooding should be expected overnight Sunday. But if winds haven’t switched west enough Monday afternoon, there could be another significant period of flooding at that time. The Special Weather Statement is also calling for damaging winds speeds along the Lake Erie Shoreline during this event. Residents in the area should pay close attention to local conditions and be prepared.
There is also a risk of flooding and shoreline damages along the Lake St. Clair shoreline on Monday, most likely Monday afternoon, when the winds shift to the west. The potentially impacted areas in the LTVCA would be the community of Lighthouse Cove and the eastern shoreline of the lakes in Chatham-Kent.
There are also heavy rains in the forecast that could cause ponding and localized flooding in low-lying shoreline areas. Due to the high lake levels, the groundwater table is high and storm water sewer systems and local watercourses are full with lake water. As a result, rainwater is not draining properly from these areas. Any water from upstream making its way downstream on local watercourses into these shoreline areas could cause additional flooding.
People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.
This message will be in effect until December 7, 2021.
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