Highlights:

• A Special Weather Statement and Gale Warnings for both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair have been issued due to very strong winds in the forecast starting late tonight and lasting through Wednesday into Thursday morning.
• Very strong risk of significant shoreline damage, erosion and flooding along Lake Erie, including the high bluff areas and Erie Shore Drive, starting late tonight and lasting all day Wednesday into the evening period.
• Strong risk of shoreline damage, erosion and flooding along Lake St. Clair, including Lighthouse Cove, Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday morning.

Message:

Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement due to strong southwesterly winds in the forecast for Wednesday. In addition, Environment Canada’s Marine Forecast has issued Gale Warnings for both Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair due to forecasts of very strong winds on the lakes all day Wednesday lasting through to Thursday morning. Forecasts call for winds from the southeast to climb above 35 km/hr on Lake Erie late overnight tonight. Winds are predicted to switch through the south over the morning, ending up as southwest winds in the afternoon. Forecasts suggest that, at their peak during the afternoon, sustained wind speeds could exceed 65 km/hr with gusts over 90 km/hr. In the evening, wind speeds are expected to drop a bit and switch through the west, ending up as northwest winds during the overnight period. Forecasts suggest that winds on Lake St. Clair could still be up around 40 or 50 km/hr with gusts over 60 km/hr when they become northwest overnight. Winds are predicted to drop further during the overnight period falling below 35 km/hr Thursday morning. The Marine Forecast is predicting waves of 3 to 4 m in height on Lake Erie and 1.5 m waves on Lake St. Clair by Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will be driving waves onto the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County overnight and throughout the day Wednesday and into the evening period. There is a strong risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion all along the Lake Erie shorelines. This would include a risk of erosion along the high bluff areas and there is also expected to be flooding in low lying shoreline areas. Based on the forecasts, significant flooding would be expected along Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent. Although water levels on Lake Erie have dropped by around 30 cm since late August, the wind speeds predicted for this event are substantially greater than those that caused flooding and triggered a State of Emergency along Erie Shore Drive in late August.

When the winds switch to the west and northwest, in the late evening and overnight period Wednesday into Thursday, winds will be driving waves onto the Lake St. Clair shoreline in Lakeshore and Chatham-Kent. Again, there is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion. Based on the forecasts, flooding would also be expected in Lighthouse Cove along Melody Drive, Island Crescent and possibly Peninsula Street. Wind speeds are predicted to exceed those that caused flooding in Lighthouse Cove on Hallowe’en night.

People should take extra caution and avoid shoreline areas. The waves will be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until November 29, 2019.

Message Contact: LTVCA Administration Office (519-354-7310) or Jason Wintermute (jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca)