Highlights:

• Strong Wind Warning has been issued for Lake Erie due to strong south winds this afternoon through Thursday.
• Risk of shoreline damage, erosion and flooding along the Lake Erie shore, including the high bluff areas.
• Risk of damages along Erie Shore Drive at various times over the coming days.

Message:

A Strong Wind Warning has been issued by Environment Canada due to strong southerly winds forecasted to begin this afternoon and to last through Thursday. The current easterly winds are forecasted to shift to the southeast this afternoon and to increase in speed ending up somewhere between 30 and 35 km/hr for the evening and overnight period. Winds are also forecasted to switch to the southwest during the overnight period. After a brief lull Tuesday morning, winds are forecasted to rise in the late morning or early afternoon reaching speeds between 35 and 40 km/hr that are forecasted to last through into Wednesday evening. Although the wind forecasts are starting to be a bit far out to be reliable after that, forecasts suggest that Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning could also see wind speeds between 30 and 40 km/hr from the southwest. The Marine Forecasts suggest wave heights on Lake Erie could reach up to 1.5 m in height this evening and 2 m on Tuesday afternoon.

Strong winds will be driving waves onto the Lake Erie shoreline in Chatham-Kent and Elgin County from this afternoon into Thursday. There is a risk that wave action could damage shoreline protection works and cause erosion, all along the Lake Erie shoreline, including along the high bluff areas. Low lying areas could also experience flooding. The area most likely to be impacted is Erie Shore Drive in Chatham-Kent as the area will be exposed to direct wind and wave action for most of this period and over the last few years flooding tends to occur in the area when winds exceed 30 km/hr from the south. There is still some uncertainty in the forecasts, especially as we get into the forecasts for later in the week, and whether there will be damage depends on how high the winds get. Residents should pay attention to local conditions and be prepared.

People should take extra caution and avoid the shoreline should conditions get rough. The waves can be strong and the shoreline slippery. There could also be hazardous debris within the waves and water which could be thrown onto the shore. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children and animals should be kept away from the water.

Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory if necessary.

This message will be in effect until October 25, 2019.

Contact: Jason Wintermute (519-354-7310 x227,  jason.wintermute@ltvca.ca) regarding this message.